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NWS Area Forecast Discussion
AFD issued by the Atlanta/Peachtree City, GA NWS forecast office.
AFD issued by the Atlanta/Peachtree City, GA NWS forecast office.
000 FXUS62 KFFC 150011 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 711 PM EST Fri Dec 14 2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 224 PM EST Fri Dec 14 2018/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... The sprawling cut-off low continues its eastward trek into the mid- Mississippi Valley this afternoon, bringing rainy and drizzly weather to the state. As expected, very limited instability has restricted much thunderstorm development. What little embedded thunder we are able to muster will continue to be limited primarily to central Georgia through this evening, though a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out farther north. Additional rainfall amounts this afternoon into the overnight hours are expected to be manageable. Most areas will likely receive an additional half inch or less in north Georgia while some locations in central Georgia may approach an additional inch. Given these amounts, further flooding concerns are rather minimal. Rainfall coverage will lessen from west to east as the low lifts northeastward through Saturday morning. By this time, only scattered showers will remain across the area with shower chances further retreating to the northern half of the area by Saturday afternoon in the vicinity of the upper low. Shower chances will then end across north Georgia by Saturday night into Sunday morning as the upper low exits toward the mid-Atlantic. RW LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/... Still some differences in amount of enhanced moisture field between the Euro and GFS for the Thursday wave/system so continue some slight to chance pops from Wed PM through Thurs PM to handle. Otherwise very little change made to mostly dry rest of fcst. Previous discussion follows... Baker PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 AM EST Fri Dec 14 2018/ LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/... A few lingering showers across north GA Saturday night as the H5 upper low moves away from the CWA. Dry and stable conditions will begin Sunday and continue through mid week. The ECMWF has been consistent with a midweek system bringing a chance of rain back into the CWA by Thursday. The GFS, while previously being the drier model, is coming around to more of a ECMWF solution, although timing and moisture depth differences remain. Will continue with slight chance pops for the end of the long term. Temperatures through the long term will be near seasonal norms. 17 && .AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... We had a brief respite at Atlanta area terminals as a dry slot moved in but this has since been replaced with a moderate RA shield that is keeping area LIFR conditions. At least -RA will continue through 07Z followed by further reduced VSBY but continued LIFR range. Wind shift for ATL around 14Z and this is where I put improvement to MVFR although this improvement could be delayed by a few hours. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... Medium on VLIFR potential and LIFR duration High on remaining elements. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 49 58 43 58 / 80 40 20 0 Atlanta 48 55 44 55 / 70 30 20 0 Blairsville 46 52 39 51 / 70 40 40 10 Cartersville 48 54 43 53 / 70 30 30 5 Columbus 51 59 47 57 / 60 20 10 0 Gainesville 47 54 42 54 / 80 40 30 5 Macon 53 62 45 59 / 80 30 10 0 Rome 48 53 43 54 / 70 30 30 5 Peachtree City 49 56 44 56 / 70 30 10 0 Vidalia 58 67 47 61 / 90 40 10 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...Deese
