U.S. Weather Extremes for

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NWS Area Forecast Discussion
AFD issued by the Atlanta/Peachtree City, GA NWS forecast office.

000
FXUS62 KFFC 201140
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
735 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019


.SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

A weak upper level wave should cross GA today. Moisture with this
feature looks limited...but a couple of the high resolution models
are showing a few showers/thunderstorms this morning mainly north
and west. Previous forecast had low chance pops for a portion of
north and west through about 18z. Have no real reason to make a big
change so have kept a slight chance for the same area through the
morning. Otherwise high pressure will be building aloft across the
southeast through the short term. Rising heights will push
temperatures above normal through the period for most of north and
central GA.

41


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

An early season heat wave will be building through this week into
the Memorial Day weekend as a strong upper ridge anchors over the
Southeast. By the Thursday into Friday both the ECMWF and GFS
forecast 500 mb heights around 594-595 dam. These heights would be
record levels for the dates based on sounding climatology at FFC,
and in fact would be on par with all-time records for the month of
May.

All of this is to say that temperatures will run well above
normal through the week. While temperatures will already be hot by
midweek with widespread low-to-mid 90s across the CWA, temperatures
will continue to ratchet up through Memorial Day. By Friday into the
weekend, widespread mid-to-upper 90s can be expected, and some 100-
degree temperatures become increasingly likely across at least
portions of central Georgia. Daily high temperature records
appear to be in jeopardy during this time frame. Refer to the
climate section below for daily record temperature information
through the week.

Given this strong upper ridge, precipitation opportunities will be
more or less nonexistent with only an isolated shower or storm
possible in the northeast Georgia mountains on Thursday.

RW


&&

.CLIMATE...

Records for 05-20

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      96 1941     60 1991     69 1943     46 1968
                1927                    1902
   KATL      94 1941     52 1894     70 1996     39 1894
                                        1902
   KCSG      98 1944     66 1932     71 2017     46 1976
                                        1962
                                        1915
   KMCN      98 1962     67 1991     71 1960     43 2007



Records for 05-21

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      98 1933     63 1905     71 1902     44 1954
   KATL      96 1941     57 1888     70 1987     44 1894
                                        1933
                                        1927
   KCSG      98 1941     66 1950     74 1902     48 1954
   KMCN      97 1962     68 1950     71 2017     44 2002
                1898                    2001
                                        1938



Records for 05-22

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KATL      94 1941     48 1883     70 1996     43 1883
                1938                    1941
   KAHN      99 1941     57 1967     70 1983     45 1993
   KCSG      99 1933     69 1967     74 1902     45 1954
   KMCN      97 1962     66 1967     71 1987     43 1993
                1898                    1983



Records for 05-23

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      99 1941     57 1967     69 1953     45 2002
   KATL      95 1941     56 1967     71 1941     40 1883
   KCSG      99 1933     59 1967     73 1983     49 1954
                                        1915
   KMCN      98 1956     56 1967     72 1938     42 2002
                1941                    1915



Records for 05-24

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KMCN      97 1960     65 1899     73 2000     46 1931
   KAHN      96 1912     65 1966     71 1998     42 1931
   KATL      95 1996     60 1895     72 2000     45 1892
   KCSG      99 1933     73 1977     74 1996     47 1892
                                        1933



Records for 05-25

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     100 1926     65 1979     71 2004     46 2013
                            1956                    1979
   KCSG      98 1912     71 1979     75 2000     51 1979
                            1956                    1931
   KMCN      97 2000     65 1923     74 2000     49 2013
                1960                                1979
                1953
   KATL      93 1960     63 1895     72 2004     46 1979
                1953                    1953



Records for 05-26

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      99 1911     63 1963     72 2004     41 1979
   KATL      94 1936     64 1923     73 1989     43 1979
                1916        1901
                1911
   KCSG      98 1933     75 1961     74 2000     47 1979
                            1906        1989
   KMCN      98 1962     69 1901     72 1921     49 1979

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR conditions through the period. Increasing mid level clouds
associated with an upper wave will continue this morning. Expect
some cumulus 4 to 5 thsd ft by afternoon. Isolated showers still
possible mainly before 18z still possible but looking less likely.
Winds becoming mainly west 8 to 10 kt after 14z. KATL could shift to
northeast during last few hours of taf period.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High on all elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          89  64  91  67 /  20  10   5   5
Atlanta         88  66  90  70 /  20  10   5   5
Blairsville     82  55  84  62 /  20  10   5   5
Cartersville    87  61  90  67 /  20  10   5   5
Columbus        91  67  93  69 /  20  10   5   5
Gainesville     86  63  88  67 /  20  10   5   5
Macon           92  65  94  69 /  10   5   5   5
Rome            88  60  90  66 /  20   5   5  10
Peachtree City  89  63  91  66 /  20  10   5   5
Vidalia         94  69  95  71 /   5   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...41

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