U.S. Weather Extremes for
Thursday, August 16, 2018

High Temperature

107°F at Thermal, CA

Low Temperature

28°F at West Yellowstone, MT

High Precipitation

7.26in at Blytheville Municipal, AR

Data for lower 48 states and courtesy of

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NWS Area Forecast Discussion
AFD issued by the Atlanta/Peachtree City, GA NWS forecast office.

FXUS62 KFFC 171826

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
226 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Moisture has noticeably returned to the area with surface
dewpoints back in the 70s and precipitable water near or above the
two inch threshold. As weak upper disturbances make their way
through the deepening upper trough over the Tennessee Valley,
scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the area.
This convection will continue into the evening with a gradual
diminishing in coverage into the overnight hours. With SBCAPE around
2000 J/kg, a couple of briefly strong or an isolated severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through the evening, though weak
shear and unimpressive downdraft CAPE should help limit the overall
severe threat. Given the aforementioned PWs, locally heavy rainfall
will be possible.

On Saturday, the surface front will settle farther southeastward
into the Tennessee Valley as the upper trough axis shifts eastward.
With the trough axis over the area providing forcing amid continued
southwest surface flow, widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected on Saturday. Weaker shear on Saturday should further limit
the severe threat, though locally heavy rainfall will again be
possible as PWs remain elevated above 2". With continued increased
cloud cover and convection, high temperatures on Saturday will be
held largely into the 80s for most locations.


.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Unsettled weather to persist through much of the long term portion of the forecast.

An old stationary boundary will remain situated near the GA/TN/NC
state  line early in the period. The airmass south of this
boundary will remain moist and unstable as Gulf moisture continues
to be funneled northward into the region through early next week.
The stationary boundary will begin to push northward by early
next week as a cool front begins to move into the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. This front will slowly move through the
CWFA late Tuesday into Wednesday. A slightly drier airmass is
expected to settle on the back side of this boundary. However, not
confident on exactly how far this boundary will push, especially
this time of year.

Above normal chances for precipitation will continue through
Wednesday. Temps slightly below normal are expected.



.AVIATION... 18Z Update... A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings is
trending largely toward VFR this afternoon. Expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms through this evening with coverage
lessening after sunset. IFR ceilings are likely again by early
Saturday morning before slowly lifting through Saturday afternoon.
Convective coverage is expected to be fairly widespread Saturday
afternoon. Winds will remain southwest through the period at 8-10
knots during the day and lighter overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.



Athens          71  85  71  86 /  40  60  50  50
Atlanta         72  84  72  86 /  30  70  50  50
Blairsville     67  79  66  81 /  60  70  60  40
Cartersville    72  83  70  85 /  50  70  50  50
Columbus        73  88  73  88 /  40  60  40  60
Gainesville     71  83  70  85 /  40  70  50  40
Macon           72  88  72  88 /  30  60  40  50
Rome            72  84  71  86 /  60  70  50  40
Peachtree City  72  85  71  86 /  30  60  50  50
Vidalia         73  90  74  90 /  50  50  40  40




LONG TERM....NListemaa

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