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NWS Area Forecast Discussion
AFD issued by the Atlanta/Peachtree City, GA NWS forecast office.

FXUS62 KFFC 191808

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
108 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 635 AM EST Tue Feb 19 2019/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

A band of light rain has persisted across north GA overnight. With
low dewpoints and temperatures in the mid 30s across the
north...have included a mix of light rain and sleet for this morning
generally north of Rome to Cleveland. No impacts are expected. Rain
will be increasing during the day as the long fetch of southwesterly
flow continues to bring moisture into the forecast area. The axis of
highest QPF has shifted north and west...but still looks like storm
totals through the week of four to six inches north of Atlanta to
Gainesville...and tapering to lesser amounts south. Have made no
changes to the Flood Watch. A strong wedge will set up today and
continue through much of Wednesday. Winds should be gusty at times
today with some places at the higher elevations gusting to around
35kts. Not looking widespread enough for a wind advisory at this
time...but next shift may want to keep an eye on this. Temperatures
today will be difficult since the amount of warming is questionable.
Have generally taken the highs down a bit especially across the
north. Expect Wednesday to be another cool and wet day with the
wedge still in place. Have left the mention of thunder out of the
short term.


LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

The long term period picks up with another period of possible heavy
rainfall late Wednesday as the wedge breaks down and a cold front
pushes towards the area. Current models don`t show the front making
much progress into the area before becoming more parallel to the
flow and stalling. With the front stalled somewhere in the
vicinity, likely to categorical pops have been included for
northern Georgia through Saturday as multiple waves of
precipitation move through the area. With instability present,
thunder has also been included for multiple days of the forecast.
Also, with such high PW values forecast Wednesday through the
rest of the long term, heavy rain is expected at times over
multiple days continuing concerns for flash flooding and river
flooding. Portions of northwestern GA already has a few rivers in
flood. The Flood Watch is still in effect for portions of
northeast Georgia through early Friday. Make sure to stay updated
to the forecast for any changes to the watch.

The next more organized system looks to impact the area late
Saturday into Sunday as a surface low develops across the midwest
and pushes a cold front into the state on Sunday. With good
instability across central Georgia and high PW values, this system
will bring another round of heavy rain and thunderstorms to the

Overall, with the bulk of the precipitation expected to fall in
the short term, current QPF totals from Thursday through Sunday is
about 1 to 3+ inches with the highest amounts across northern
Georgia. For more information on the excessive rainfall refer to
the latest ESF. Temperatures through the extended are mostly above
average, with highs generally in the 60s and 70s with lows in the
40s to lower 60s. Some areas are even pushing low 80s across
central Georgia through the weekend.



18Z Update...
Showers and a few thunderstorms moving across the area right now.
Easterly winds are setting up and pushing the wedge deeper into
the area so should see the chances of thunder diminish over the
next few hours...with only rain expected for the rest of the
period. Winds will stay out of the east in the 10-15kt range with
gust 20-25kt through Wed afternoon. Ceilings are up and down right
now but mainly in the MVFR to VFR range across the area. Ceilings
will fall over night into the IFR range and will see some LIFR
readings through daybreak as the wedge continue to push into the
area from the east. VSBYs will follow along with the ceilings.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence is medium to high on all elements.



Athens          47  38  48  42 /  80  80  70  80
Atlanta         48  40  52  49 /  80  80  70  90
Blairsville     43  36  49  45 /  80  80  80 100
Cartersville    46  39  55  49 /  80  80  80 100
Columbus        56  46  66  59 /  70  60  50  70
Gainesville     45  37  47  42 /  80  80  80  90
Macon           55  43  60  55 /  60  60  50  40
Rome            45  40  55  50 /  80  80  80 100
Peachtree City  48  41  52  52 /  80  80  70  80
Vidalia         61  48  70  60 /  40  60  50  20


Flood Watch through Friday morning for the following zones:



LONG TERM....Reaves

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