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NWS Area Forecast Discussion
AFD issued by the Atlanta/Peachtree City, GA NWS forecast office.
AFD issued by the Atlanta/Peachtree City, GA NWS forecast office.
000 FXUS62 KFFC 191808 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 108 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 635 AM EST Tue Feb 19 2019/ SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/... A band of light rain has persisted across north GA overnight. With low dewpoints and temperatures in the mid 30s across the north...have included a mix of light rain and sleet for this morning generally north of Rome to Cleveland. No impacts are expected. Rain will be increasing during the day as the long fetch of southwesterly flow continues to bring moisture into the forecast area. The axis of highest QPF has shifted north and west...but still looks like storm totals through the week of four to six inches north of Atlanta to Gainesville...and tapering to lesser amounts south. Have made no changes to the Flood Watch. A strong wedge will set up today and continue through much of Wednesday. Winds should be gusty at times today with some places at the higher elevations gusting to around 35kts. Not looking widespread enough for a wind advisory at this time...but next shift may want to keep an eye on this. Temperatures today will be difficult since the amount of warming is questionable. Have generally taken the highs down a bit especially across the north. Expect Wednesday to be another cool and wet day with the wedge still in place. Have left the mention of thunder out of the short term. 41 LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/... The long term period picks up with another period of possible heavy rainfall late Wednesday as the wedge breaks down and a cold front pushes towards the area. Current models don`t show the front making much progress into the area before becoming more parallel to the flow and stalling. With the front stalled somewhere in the vicinity, likely to categorical pops have been included for northern Georgia through Saturday as multiple waves of precipitation move through the area. With instability present, thunder has also been included for multiple days of the forecast. Also, with such high PW values forecast Wednesday through the rest of the long term, heavy rain is expected at times over multiple days continuing concerns for flash flooding and river flooding. Portions of northwestern GA already has a few rivers in flood. The Flood Watch is still in effect for portions of northeast Georgia through early Friday. Make sure to stay updated to the forecast for any changes to the watch. The next more organized system looks to impact the area late Saturday into Sunday as a surface low develops across the midwest and pushes a cold front into the state on Sunday. With good instability across central Georgia and high PW values, this system will bring another round of heavy rain and thunderstorms to the area. Overall, with the bulk of the precipitation expected to fall in the short term, current QPF totals from Thursday through Sunday is about 1 to 3+ inches with the highest amounts across northern Georgia. For more information on the excessive rainfall refer to the latest ESF. Temperatures through the extended are mostly above average, with highs generally in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s to lower 60s. Some areas are even pushing low 80s across central Georgia through the weekend. Reaves && .AVIATION... 18Z Update... Showers and a few thunderstorms moving across the area right now. Easterly winds are setting up and pushing the wedge deeper into the area so should see the chances of thunder diminish over the next few hours...with only rain expected for the rest of the period. Winds will stay out of the east in the 10-15kt range with gust 20-25kt through Wed afternoon. Ceilings are up and down right now but mainly in the MVFR to VFR range across the area. Ceilings will fall over night into the IFR range and will see some LIFR readings through daybreak as the wedge continue to push into the area from the east. VSBYs will follow along with the ceilings. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Confidence is medium to high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 47 38 48 42 / 80 80 70 80 Atlanta 48 40 52 49 / 80 80 70 90 Blairsville 43 36 49 45 / 80 80 80 100 Cartersville 46 39 55 49 / 80 80 80 100 Columbus 56 46 66 59 / 70 60 50 70 Gainesville 45 37 47 42 / 80 80 80 90 Macon 55 43 60 55 / 60 60 50 40 Rome 45 40 55 50 / 80 80 80 100 Peachtree City 48 41 52 52 / 80 80 70 80 Vidalia 61 48 70 60 / 40 60 50 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Friday morning for the following zones: Bartow...Catoosa...Chattooga...Dade...Floyd...Gordon...Murray... Polk...Walker...Whitfield. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....Reaves AVIATION...01
