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NWS Area Forecast Discussion
AFD issued by the Atlanta/Peachtree City, GA NWS forecast office.
AFD issued by the Atlanta/Peachtree City, GA NWS forecast office.
976 FXUS62 KFFC 181606 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1206 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018 .UPDATE... Near term update mostly on track with a few adjustments mainly to dewpts in parts of the west and some initial cu field coverage a bit thicker in the southeast. Still looking at about 18-20z for some isolated to scattered convective initiation today but nothing too widespread or intense. Previous discussion follows... Baker && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 742 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018/ .SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/... A 07z analysis of the larger scale pattern reveals a longwave trough roughly centered near the OR/NV/ID borders and a ridge located downstream of this trough over much of the eastern US. Stronger belt of westerly flow exists across eastern Canada...with some of this flow extending down towards the northern Great Lakes. Near the sfc...a slow moving cold front extends southwestward from a sfc cyclone centered across eastern Canada into the northern GL and Central Plains. High pressure exists across much of the Southern US...with a weak trough noted east of the Appalachians. Given the synoptic setup described above... a ridge in place in the mid/upper levels over Georgia suggests little excitement in the sensible weather pattern. Nonetheless...a weak low is found trapped under the ridge just to the west of the area across AL/MS /water vapor displays this nicely this morning/. This low is expected to retrograde west so do not expect it to play much role across Georgia. Still...plenty of moisture remains entrenched under the ridge in the lower to mid levels which should help spark isolated to scattered afternoon/evening convection. Weak vorticity noted at 700mb along with persistent weak sfc troughing may assist in additional forcing across a portion of the CWA later...tho confidence is low where/if this will occur. Given weak flow...any thunderstorm activity will be slow moving and could pose a threat for locally heavy rainfall and decent downbursts /suggested by NAM/RAP/HRRR forecast sounding structure with steep lower level lapse rates/. Convection should wind down after sunset. Somewhat better ridging centered over Georgia on Tuesday as western US trough dampens and pushes east into the Montana vicinity. This should prevent afternoon convection from becoming widespread...however given stagnant moisture in the low-mid levels...ridging can`t completely eliminate thunderstorm development. Temps thru the short term will be hot and muggy with highs in the lower to mid 90s accompanied by 70s dewpoints. Kovacik && .LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/... Through the week, broad upper level ridge remains the dominant feature, with trapped moisture at the lower levels keeping diurnal convection a pesky problem. Have continued chance pops through Thursday, with the main concern being scattered thunderstorms and heavy rain potential. Ridge weakens through the latter half of the week as shortwave approaches the area. Enhanced moisture moves into the region by late Thursday as the upper level feature nears and travels across portions of the Tennessee Valley. PoPs increase Friday and early Saturday, but model solutions continue to show better moisture shifting north of the area later Saturday. Seasonal pops return behind the upper level trough as the axis shifts east of the area Sunday. Wednesday through Friday remain warm, and with high relative humidity over the region, portions of central and eastern Georgia could see heat index values in the low 100s. At this time these values are below the Heat Advisory Criteria, but anyone with outdoor activities should stay weather aware. Those spending prolonged periods of time outdoors should take frequent breaks and stay hydrated. 31 && .AVIATION... 12Z Update... Patchy fog around the area has shown up in CSG and MCN obs this morning. Expect fog to begin to burnoff in the next hour or so. MVFR/low cigs did not really materialize this morning over TAF sites /except CSG with LIFR/. After a few hours of generally clear skies this morning...afternoon cu field should develop and persist thru the evening at 4-5kft. In addition...isolated to scattered convection will be possible in conjunction with peak heating. A TEMPO has been included at all sites thru 00z. Winds will remain on the west side under 10kts through Tuesday...tho not entirely impossible to see an ob or two at NE. Do not expect this to cause any impacts. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High on all elements. Kovacik && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 93 72 95 73 / 30 20 30 20 Atlanta 91 74 93 75 / 30 20 30 20 Blairsville 88 66 88 67 / 30 20 30 20 Cartersville 92 71 93 71 / 30 20 30 20 Columbus 91 74 94 75 / 30 20 30 20 Gainesville 91 72 92 73 / 40 20 30 20 Macon 91 72 94 74 / 30 20 30 20 Rome 92 72 93 72 / 30 20 30 20 Peachtree City 91 71 93 72 / 30 20 30 20 Vidalia 91 73 94 75 / 40 20 30 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kovacik/Baker LONG TERM....31 AVIATION...Kovacik
